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Normally, when you run an update if you get a new kernel you will/should get a new matching kmod, but it's possible that things don't always go that way...so yeah it could break but it usually doesn't.
I run FC6 and I've only had it happen once where the Livna packages had a bogus unresolved dependency and couldn't install so it did break but just till the next morning. I was able to fix it by downloading the rpm's right from their site though, but it's always safer to update in the morning or afternoon, try not to update late at night.
All that's assuming you're using yum, if you used the Nvidia Installer from their website then it will definitely break everytime you change kernels and sometimes in between, so keep that installer handy.
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